El fenomen, rigorosament demostrat en una sèrie d'experiments desenvolupats pels psicòlegs J
ustin Krugger i David Dunning publicats en The Journal of Personality and Social Psychology el desembre de 1999, es basa en els següents principis:1. Els individus incompetents tendeixen a sobreestimar les seves pròpies habilitats
2. Els individus incompetents són incapaços de reconèixer les verdaderes habilitats en els altres.
Tant Kruger com Dunning havien investigat anteriorment sobre el fenomen conegut pels psicòlegs segons el qual la majoria de la gent tendeix a valorar-se a si mateixa molt per sobre de la mitjana, quan és estadísticament impossible: així, és difícilment comprensible que el 98% dels catedràtics d'Universidad, segons un estudi, estigui convençut que treballa millor que els altres.
Seguint aquests indicis, els professors Krugger i Dunning van dissenyar un experiment consistent a mesurar les habilitats intel·lectuals i socials d'una sèrie d'individus i demanar-los una posterior avaluació. Una vegada finalitzats els test, els resultats van ser realment reveladors:
- Els estudiants més brillants, molt superiors als seus companys, van estimar que estaven per sota.
- Els estudiants mediocres es van considerar per sobre de la mitjana
- Els estudiants rematadament dolents es van mostrar convençuts de ser entre els millors: de fet, quant més inútil era l'individu, més assegurança estava que feia les coses bé.
Així doncs, els més incompetents, segons la doctora Kruger, sofrien un doble greuge: "no solament arriben a conclusions errònies i prenen decisions desafortunades, sinó que la seva incompetència els impedeix adonar-se d'això". En tot cas, i com s'ha apuntat freqüentment, l'efecte Dunning-Kruger és una espècie de contrasignatura de la vella màxima de Charles Darwin: "La ignorància engendra més confiança que el coneixement".
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